Historically, from 2007 to 2008, the global economy overheating boost car production and sales and tire consumption, demand is expected to lead to overestimation of premium goods rising fast. Under the temptation of high natural rubber prices, whether rubber plantation owners, or rubber farmers, were unleashed an unprecedented kind of glue desire, large tracts of virgin forest is replaced by a single rubber plantations. However, the "Golden Age" short, then transferred to a recession and a depression. Subject to 7--8 years of growth cycle, from the rubber tree species to output glue obvious lag, adjust the speed is too slow leads to the beginning of 2013 into the world's natural rubber production capacity surplus impasse.
Within the next two years, although the traditional rubber producing countries - Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Government has repeatedly intervened in rubber prices, but in the end have little effect. Last resort, Thailand took the lead, "cries cut Ma Su", taking the cut trees to production pace. However, the capacity to falter, often due to government pressure and rubber farmers march halfway to give up. Coupled with the cut of the tree are all old rubber trees, and a limited number of new rubber plantations unmatched delivery capacity, so overall, natural rubber supply side remains modest growth.
According to IRSG latest report of the International Rubber Study Group data, this year, Thailand and Vietnam at low prices continues to improve the yield of the glue, the largest rubber producing countries, Thailand's rubber exports in the first half year on year increase of 1.3% to 1.72 million tons, and Vietnam's third largest producer of shipments in the first seven months increased by 16% to 530,000 tons. Natural rubber exports despite the decline in the volume of trade between the producing countries, in particular to reduce the impact of Chinese imports, but exports increased by 1%, which is mainly to offset the increase in exports to developed countries, especially China's exports between Member States It drops. According to statistics, Malaysia, Cambodia and the Philippines this year, exports the first eight months have shown double-digit growth rates were 15.2%, 34.4% and 22.7%. Vietnam exports increased 8.6%, to 619,500 tons, has been completion of this year's export target of 60%.
In the producing countries to continue to expand production capacity in the background, expects global natural rubber market is still in oversupply, overcapacity of around 300,000 tons. Among them, natural rubber supply increase of 4.4% over last year, reaching 12.6 million tons, while demand growth will be reduced from 6.7 per cent last year's 1.2% to 12.3 million tons. In addition, high prices when a large number of rubber trees planted in the next year will enter the mature stage, next year rubber production is likely to continue to grow by 2.9%, will exacerbate the oversupply situation. Jiaojia expected to further test a low risk.
Automobile production and sales into shrinking period
By the impact of slowdown in economic growth, demand for natural rubber downstream end industry - automotive market consumption growth continued to slow down, and transferred to the shrinking period. In July, car production and sales were down significantly year on year also showed faster decline. 7-than-expected monthly sales decline, the third consecutive month below the level of the previous year. Last monthly sales decline for three consecutive months the time November 2008 Month - January 2009.
Overall the data show that from January to July, car sales were completed respectively 13,612,700 and 13,353,300, an increase of 0.8% and 0.4% respectively over the previous year. Cumulative monthly growth continued to fall, down 8.7 and 7.8 percentage points respectively over the previous year . Passenger cars, from January to July, sales were completed respectively 11,629,000 and 11,364,200, an increase of 4% and 3.4% respectively over the previous year growth rate down 8.2 and 8.6 percentage points respectively. Commercial vehicles, from January to July, sales were completed 1,983,700 and 1,989,100, a decrease of 14.6% and 13.9% respectively over the previous year.
Although the automotive market sales growth slowed, but the new energy vehicles bucked the trend. According to the Automobile Association statistics, from January to July, 95,530 new energy vehicles production and sales of 89,549, an increase of respectively 2.5 and 2.6 times. New energy automobile production and sales hot, but now its market share is small, short term is difficult to fill the gap caused by shrinking demand for traditional vehicles. In addition, the terminal part of the current (dealer to customer) purchases of real weak, dealer inventories remain high.
Chinese auto dealer inventory early warning indicators show that domestic car dealer inventory warning index in August was 48.7%, a decline of 4.7%, down 1.6% for 10 consecutive months after the ultra warning line, warning index for the first time below the line ups and downs, mainly due to automobile manufacturers reduce output speed, while increasing promotional efforts. However, the domestic economy is facing downward pressure, the automotive market already bid farewell to the era of rapid development, the relative reduction in consumer demand, increased dealer inventory, profits decline.
In addition, this year, the domestic heavy truck industry into a sustained contraction in August are still hovering in the valley. The first commercial network statistics show that in August, the heavy truck market a total of 35,000 vehicles sold, down 27%, a decline of 6%; January to August, the heavy truck market totaled 367,700 vehicles sold, down 30% only 30.6% over January-July decline narrowed a little.
The author believes that the heavy truck market sales decline narrowed only appearance, it is not the main reason for the market to pick up, but the small base last year. Domestic macroeconomic slowdown continued this year, the manufacturing sector to enter recession "new normal", not transport and logistics market downturn before, tariffs or no down, heavy-duty truck market has not busy season. Under "more mountains" of oppression, not to mention various companies active scheduling, many companies even the end of last year in advance of the third year on the card stock cars are not digested, which also caused the heavy truck market in recent months, the monthly very alarming decline. Surface value card sales decline narrowed substantially reverse the fundamental factors of the market decline is not improved, no doubt to the September-December in the heavy truck market cast a shadow.
I believe that, even late into the automobile market, "Golden September" season stage, the market is difficult to have picked up space under weak demand-led, hard rubber prices strengthened.
Tire industry survival in jeopardy
Chinese tire industry in recent years, the survival at stake, not only the domestic sales market began to shrink, and overseas market share also frequently trade setbacks.
Overseas markets, China's passenger car and light truck tires in the US market dependence is high, 40% of China's tire production to be exported, the United States accounted for nearly thirty percent share. US exports to China but also to expand the tire "double reverse" one of the countries more. By the US "double reverse", this year, Shandong and Fujian has two tire factories closed down, the domestic tire factory took the initiative to reduce the operating rate.
According to the China Rubber Industry Association statistics, in the first half of this year, in the context of increasing downward pressure on the economy, the domestic tire market demand continues to slump, the industry average operating rate of 60 percent, down more than 10 percentage points over the same period last year, a "volume and price Qi or "situation. Financial data 42 members of the tire unit also provided evidence of the pressures facing enterprises. It shows that from January to July, these enterprises tire production fell 8.27%, finished goods inventory increased by 11.4%, sales revenue fell 14.32%, profit fell 32.51 percent, the loss amounted to 436 million yuan, the loss rate increase, which funded enterprises the loss amounted to 390.51 million yuan, 199.52 percent loss rate increase. to further expand the amount of loss and loss area not only marks China's tire industry brilliant halted, but also marks the low price of natural rubber "new normal" will be a long time.
In addition, the new regulations after the adhesive landing, trying to re-import tariff adhesive already unrealistic, tire companies can purchase rubber as a raw material. Thus, in July began importing natural rubber blowout phenomenon. According to the latest data released by China Customs, natural rubber imports in July was 267,600 tons, the chain greatly increased 73%, a 70% increase over last year, while January-July was 1.3963 million tons of natural rubber imports, down . 11.5% at the same time, synthetic rubber imports in July was 152,700 tons, a decline of 11.5%, an increase of 27% from January to July synthetic rubber imports 96.55 million tons, an increase of 10%.
With the accelerated pace of outsourcing, inventory link signs of a rebound. By the end of August, Qingdao Bonded rubber inventories rose to 146,600 tons, representing an increase of 16,500 tons in mid, up 12.68 percent. Specifically, the rubber was 120,600 tons, representing an increase of 19,400 t the end of July, become part of the inventory increase the main types of plastic; adhesive is 0.9 million tons, compared with the end of July by 0.4 million tons, overall dropped sharply; synthetic rubber was 1.7 million tons, representing an increase of 01,100 t the end of July, up 6.92 percent.
Costs or tapping a substantial decline
In general, natural rubber production cost consists of three parts: First, the cost of cultivation; the second is tapping labor costs; Third, processing and transportation costs. Among them, the labor costs of a larger proportion of the total cost. It is understood that workers have to sunrise at 3:00 to go to work the rubber plantations, because this is the best time of tapping rubber trees. Due to time tapping harsh, harsh environment, work intensity, and the majority of young people do not want to do the job. At present, except for some small family producing micro rubber plantation by the independent tapping rubber farmers, the above medium scale rubber plantation workers are generally hired to take the tapping mode and press agreed with the workers divided into 64. In other words, in order to attract labor, rubber plantation owners often incur higher labor costs.
At present, the domestic natural rubber producing areas by tapping entirely artificial, operating efficiency is low, and the quality is difficult to guarantee. The latest development and production of fully automatic machine tapping rubber tapping not only function as well as a large data system can efficiently tapping, and rubber production, quality, soil testing, humidity, and other indicators of statistical analysis to achieve natural rubber tapping automation and information technology.
It is understood that after the continuous adjustment programs, improved technology, lower costs, the cost of automatic tapping machines only 1200-1500 yuan. Artificial tapping contrast, medium-sized rubber plantation master future prefer to use automatic tapping machine. To 800 rubber trees as a unit, a rubber tapper cut a tree an average of 1 minute, but with automatic tapping machine, you can achieve the same time tapping 800 trees, takes only 30 seconds. In addition, high precision machine, will not harm the rubber tree, rubber tree tapping life will be extended in the past eight years 10 - 11 years, production will increase by 30% -40%.
The author estimates that rubber production rate of automatic tapping machine tapping is 2.6-2.8 times the artificial rubber production rate mode and divided into 64 to 12 yuan / kg price calculated off adhesive glue, adhesive to carve tapping worker It costs 7,200 yuan / ton, but with automatic tapping machine, in the same dry rubber production, costs and give tapping machines only 2571-2770 yuan / ton. Future automatic tapping machine completely replace the manual, then artificial light costs, the unit amount of adhesive can be saved 4430-4629 yuan / ton.
According to relevant survey results, 300 yuan / mu planting costs in terms of disposable cutting jobs critical point, Hainan was 12,448 yuan / ton, Yunnan is 9942 yuan / ton. Artificial tapping gradually being replaced by the words automatic tapping machine, tapping costs will be substantially reduced, as will be the focus of Jiaojia down and lower costs. The author estimates that the cost will be reduced to tapping future Hainan 7950 yuan / ton, Yunnan will be reduced to 5442 yuan / ton. In the long term, Hujiao does not rule out the possibility of dropping to 6000-8000 yuan / ton range.
Jiaojia downturn or not new policies can reverse one or two, to reduce the supply pressure is the capacity to solve the supply and demand of truth. Prior to large-scale production capacity, rubber prices to get rid of Xiongtu is alone make. Moreover, with the improvement of the technological level, the cost factor is already not support Jiaojia natural barrier. Future Hujiao still in the "darkness" among investors need more patience and confidence to wait for dawn.
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